Match Storylines: The 2016 U.S. Open Cup Semifinal

There’s no denying the magnitude of Tuesday night’s semifinal. Coming off a 3-1 loss at Real Salt Lake on the weekend, the Chicago Fire will shift quickly into a crucial semifinal match in the 2016 Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup in Foxborough against the New England Revolution. Coverage of the match begins at 7 p.m. CT on Watch ESPN and ESPN2. These two sides have faced each other twice already this season, so they'll be very familiar with one another come Tuesday night. Below are five factors that look likely to come into play in determining which of these two teams heads to the cup final:

Over the hump

The match is one of two teams with wildly different recent Open Cup histories. Including Tuesday’s match, the Fire have made it to the final four of the competition in four of the last five seasons. However, the semifinal round is where their cup dreams have ended in each year except 2011, including deflating road losses each of the last to years (2015 at Philadelphia, 2014 at Seattle). Given both his club's U.S. Open Cup tradition and the team's current outlook in the MLS regular season, Tuesday night holds a lot of weight for head coach Veljko Paunovic.

“This game for us marks the game of the season so far,” he said. “We are very excited and very up for the game. After the loss in Salt Lake I could see and feel the team is really focused on the Open Cup semifinal game against New England, and that’s what makes me feel good about the game tomorrow. For me, it’s a great excitement. I can’t wait for the game tomorrow.”

On the other hand, New England hasn’t made it this far in the tournament since 2008, when they lost a 3-1 outcome to D.C. United in the semifinal.

A familiar foe

The Fire have played New England twice in Foxborough already this season, a 2-0 loss in May followed by a 1-0 defeat in July. Things have certainly evolved for Chicago from a lineup standpoint across both of those matches.

In May, the first 2016 meeting between these two teams, Paunovic fielded a 5-3-2 formation led by since-departed forwards Gilberto and Kennedy Igboananike. In the second meeting -- played just 17 days ago -- the Fire came out in a 4-2-3-1 setup, one that Paunovic has preferred since July’s immersion of forward Michael de Leeuw into the lineup. Having seen the Revolution in person twice already ahead of Tuesday night’s semifinal and given them different looks has been a benefit, according to Paunovic.

“It is very helpful that we’ve (recently) played the last game against New England,” he said. “That game I think we had a very good start of the second half, a very good 20 minutes in the second half. I think we managed very well in the first half where we didn’t concede opportunities, create opportunities for goals. Of course, it was a tough first half for us. We didn’t create in the first half a lot, but that was a part of our plan. The only thing that we learned from that game is that we have to be consistent until the end of the game, and we don’t concede either opportunities or goals. We believe, for us, that was a tough loss, but we learned from it and now we are more excited.”

Revs rolled

New England haven’t played at home since the last time the Fire visited in late July, and didn’t fare well in their two games played in that span. The Revolution enter Tuesday’s match having surrendered seven goals and scoring just two of their own in a 3-1 loss in Orlando followed by a 4-1 loss in Toronto.

It’s tough to tell which version of the New England defense will show up on Tuesday night. The 40 goals the Revolution have allowed through their 23 matches played is currently the highest total in MLS. Additionally, 11 of those have been given up the game’s final 15 minutes. However, in the two meetings between Chicago and New England in 2016, the Revolution haven't allowed a single Fire shot on goal. According to Paunovic, however, a meeting in the Open Cup tournament has an entirely different feel.

“I think a competition like the Open Cup has a special feeling, has a special identity,” he said. “As we’ve said many times in the past, for us it’s very important, traditionally very important. That is reflected in every single player in our squad. That’s very positive. Our team is capable from switching from the league performance and switching very fast to Open Cup where so far we are doing well. That makes me feel better about the possibilities for [Tuesday]. I can see the team. The guys are very motivated, excited.”

Fresh legs

The Fire should enter Tuesday’s semifinal mostly rested and with a clean bill of health. Despite playing at Real Salt Lake just three night’s prior, Paunovic has made squad rotation a priority ahead of this week’s match.

“For us, as we always say, we always want to win,” he said. “We always look for the competitive lineup, the lineup which will help us to win the game. That said, we have in our minds that tomorrow we will play with the best available players and the players who have, in our opinion, the best performance in the last week and the last game. We will for sure be very competitive tomorrow.”

Of Paunovic’s regular field players, only defenders Jonathan Campbell, Brandon Vincent, and Michael Harrington played a full 90 minutes on Saturday night. Forwards David Accam and Michael de Leeuw were halftime subs, and midfielder Arturo Alvarez was replaced at the 68-minute mark. Midfielders Matt Polster and Khaly Thiam and defender Rodrigo Ramos were not included in the gameday 18.

Once and for all

Of course, looming over Tuesday night's trip to Gillette Stadium is the fact that the Chicago Fire are without a win on the road -- in MLS or U.S. Open Cup play -- since July 12, 2014, which also happened to come in Foxborough against the Revolution. Given the stakes, Veljko Paunovic would like nothing more than to leave that road winless streak behind when they board a return flight to Chicago on Wednesday, giving the club a Cup final at home and a fresh narrative to look forward to over the upcoming months of the 2016 campaign.